Ecological consequences of sea ice decline pdf file

In the winter, the area covered by ice gets bigger, and in the summer it gets smaller. Records show that arctic sea ice is at its lowest point in 1,500 years and continues to melt at an accelerated rate. Pdf sea ice in the arctic is one of the most rapidly changing. Seaice loss emerges as an important drive r of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. A major uncertainty linked to sea ice decline is to what extent dissolved organic matter dom in underlying ocean waters will be impacted. Multimedia gallery ecological consequences of seaice. Contrasting lake ice responses to winter climate indicate. Ecological impacts 19 damage to coral reefs 19 shifting species ranges and yearly cycles 20 declining arctic animal populations 20. Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the.

This figure shows arctic sea ice extent for the months of. Leadsnarrow, linear openings ranging in size from meters to kilometerscontinually form and disappear. Snow, land ice and sea ice shrinking snowpack vanishing glaciers polar ice disintegration 16 melting permafrost and damage to infrastructure 17 part iv. By denying the impacts of agw on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of agw, aggravating the consensus. The influence of declining sea ice on shipping activity in the canadian arctic article pdf available in geophysical research letters 4323 november 2016 with 190 reads how we measure reads. The economic significance of a seasonally seaicefree future arctic, the increased connectivity of a warmer arctic with changes in global climate, and large uncertainties in magnitude and timing of these impacts make the problem of rapid seaice loss in the arctic a. Pdf the influence of declining sea ice on shipping. Ecological consequences of sea ice decline image 3 a caribou on the rocky tundra of western greenland. Downward trends continue in sea ice thicknessand extentand spring snow cover extent and duration. Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an.

How to produce translational research to guide arctic. The arctic ocean has lost more than 30 percent of its summer ice cover in the last thirty years. In recent decades, rapid warming has contributed to a yearround decline in sea ice thickness and a 50% reduction in ice area during summer months. Readers sometimes ask us, what are the reasons behind arctic sea. Reduced sea ice is also almost certain to lead to increased shipping, tourism and exploration for oil, gas and mineral resources details in hovelsrud et al. Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline. Shrinking sea ice a students guide to global climate. Arctic seaice loss has widespread effects on wildlife. Impacts of changes in sea ice and other environmental parameters.

We show that much of the scientific evidence indicating that some polar bear subpopulations are declining due to climate changemediated sea ice reductions is likely flawed by. Sea ice in the arctic has declined in terms of overall extent, thickness. Climate models predict that by 2050 the arctic ocean will be sea ice free each summer. This enables the sea ice extents through 2100 to be calculated as a linear extrapolation. Ecological consequences of seaice decline eric post,1 uma s.

Here we demonstrate previously unknown effects of rainonsnow ros events, winter precipitation, and ice tidal surges on the arctics largest land mammal. In the arctic ocean, dom primarily results from either a in situ biological logvinova et al. Some polar bear subpopulations have indeed spent more time on land in summer than in previous. Removing this barrier between the atlantic and the pacific will modify a. Integrating scientific knowledge into the formation of policy is always a challenging exercise in translation. Below are some of the regional impacts of global change forecast by the intergovernmental panel on climate change.

If current rates of decline in sea ice continue, the summertime arctic could be completely icefree well before the end of this century. Sea ice extent has continued to decline during september, reaching below four million square kilometers early in the month. The summer minimum sea ice extent in 2005 set a new record, which was broken again in 2007. Extent of the biome is shown with respect to grown season maximum light blue and minimum white sea ice extent modified from post et al. Our message is not simple or conventional or consistent with the dire warnings present in much of the polar bear literature since 2006 schliebe et al. Implications of arctic sea ice decline for the earth system bhatt et al. The decline of arctic sea ice also has profound global climatic effects, or feedbacks, that are already intensifying global warming and have the potential to destabilize the climate system.

Abrupt summer sea ice decline has not affected polar bear. Here, focusing on arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay agw disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of arctic seaice loss and polar bear vulnerability. Individual species live within the ice, below it, on top and along the ice edge and use sea ice in different ways. Get a printable copy pdf file of the complete article 702k, or click on a page image below to browse page by page. The loss of arctic sea ice has myriad consequences, but one of the most troubling effects involves the overall impact of this change on the climate system as a whole. The changes in arctic sea ice are already having an impact on flora and.

Impacts of climate warming, declining sea ice on arctic. Increasing temperatures, declining sea ice and altered wind and precipitation patterns all may affect the fitness and abundance of species through multiple direct and indirect pathways. In this way, sea ice contributes to the circulation of the global ocean conveyor belt. Observations, projections, mechanisms, and implications. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern beaufort. One problem in truly divining a trend was the lack of continuity there was a twoyear data gap in the 1970s between the esmr data and the successor smmr data, hindering. Full publication availability and quality of sea ice habitat can influence the body condition of polar bears, as well as their denning distribution and population dynamics. Arctic sea ice extent, or the area of ocean that is covered by at least 15 percent ice, typically reaches its minimum in september, at the end of the summer melt. Accumulating evidence from the paleosciences, however, shows that the patterns of change suggested by projections of future climate change are not representative of past climatic changes or of the transitions between different. Some sea ice holds fast to a coastline or the sea floor fast icewhile pack ice drifts with winds and currents. Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western hudson bay. A model for autumn pelagic distribution of female polar bears in the chukchi sea, 19871994.

The scientists from the university of washington found that polar bears are spending more time on land than in previous decades, as oceanographic magazine reported polar bears rely on sea ice for every aspect of their. March and september monthly average arctic sea ice extent, 1979 2016. The arctic sea ice covers less area in the summer than in the winter. Landward and eastward shift of alaskan polar bear denning associated with recent sea ice. Ecological implications of changes in the arctic cryosphere. The areal extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice in the arctic ocean and adjacent seas have strongly decreased during the recent decades, but cold, snowrich winters have been common over midlatitude land areas since 2005. Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the bering and chukchi seas. Declines in the arctic sea ice are arguably the most dramatic evidence of the effects of current climate warming on ocean systems. Generating an epub file may take a long time, please be patient.

Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of arctic. Sea ice decline intensifies national snow and ice data. Changes in sea ice have begun to affect hunting and traditional overice transport routes, which. A framework for assessing the economic impacts of arctic change. Effects of arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate. The ecological consequences of changes in arctic sea ice are outlined in a recent paper in science here. Bob van oort at cicero center for climate and environmental research oslo. Pdf after a decade with nine of the lowest arctic seaice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent. In the arctic, there is an urgent need to accelerate this process as the region undergoes rapid physical and environmental changeat rates faster than the rest of the globe kwok and rothrock 2009, comiso 2012. The extent of perennial sea ice in the arctic has been declining since 1979 at an average rate of 11.

The rapid decline in arctic sea ice asi extent, area and volume during. Sea ice affects both landbased and oceanbased ecosystems. Arctic seaice loss has widespread effects on wildlife date. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice arcticwide, and for specific regions. Impacts of changing seaice conditions on arctic marine mammals. A 2007 study found the decline to be faster than forecasted by model simulations. Brodie j f, fulton t l, hebblewhite m, kerby j, kutz s j, stirling i and walker d a 20 ecological consequences of seaice decline science 341 51924. Sea ice decline and 21st century transarctic shipping routes n. Progressive changes in the abiotic environment are expected to result in profound ecological disruptions for arctic fauna, particularly sea. Yes, arctic sea ice has declined since satellite records began in 1979 but polar bears have adjusted well to this change, especially to the abrupt decline to low summer sea ice levels that have been the norm since 2007. The arctic ocean around the north pole is so cold that it is usually covered with ice. Indeed, we are not far from the moment when the feedbacks themselves will be driving the change every bit as much as our continuing emission of billions of tons of carbon dioxide annually. Implications of arctic sea ice decline for the earth system alaska. Drivers and implications of change in global ocean health.

Bob van oort at cicero center for climate and environmental. In fact, over the past several decades the arctic has warmed at twice the global rate. Here we present results from five years of annual global assessment for. Ecological consequences of seaice decline eric post et al. One consequence has been a rapid decline in arctic sea ice over the past 3 decadesa decline that is projected to continue by stateoftheart models. Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to arctic. Post e, bhatt us, bitz cm, brodie jf, fulton tl, hebblewhite m, kerby j, kutz sj, stirling i, walker da. Effects of sea ice on arctic biota ora oxford university. In recent decades, sea ice in the arctic ocean has been melting faster than it refreezes in winter. Assessing the potential impacts of declining arctic sea. After successive years of melting, the consequences are likely to be felt further afield with scientists suggesting weather patterns in the northern hemisphere may be altered.

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic seaice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to seaice decline. Scientists have predicted that longterm effects of climate change will include a decrease in sea ice and an increase in permafrost thawing, an increase in heat waves and heavy precipitation, and decreased water resources in semiarid regions. The global impacts of rapidly disappearing arctic sea ice. Introduction the recent dramatic decline in summer sea ice extent in the arctic ocean has underlined the variability and the potential impact of sea ice variability on climate and weather in northern europe and the arctic itself. Scientists have long thought that climate change is to blame, but a new study provides more evidence for that idea. The ocean health index ohi is one of the few indicators available for this purpose. Growing international and national focus on quantitatively measuring and improving ocean health has increased the need for comprehensive, scientific, and repeated indicators to track progress towards achieving policy and societal goals. Seaice loss emerges as an important drive r of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics. Document native observations of environmental change. The incredible decline of arctic sea ice visualized. Internet blogs, polar bears, and climatechange denial by. Most studies of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change and greenhouse warming have focused on scenarios that involve gradual climate change.

Contrasting lake ice responses to winter climate indicate future variability and trends on the alaskan arctic coastal plain. Seaice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Changing temperatures, sea ice, winds, and currents already affect the. Consequences of longdistance swimming and travel over deepwater pack ice for a female polar bear during a year of extreme sea ice retreat. By that time, in 1989, people were talking about global warming and its possible consequences, including effects on sea ice and other variables, parkinson said. Five reasons why sea ice decline should be front page news. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply. Sea ice loss is making polar bears thinner, and theyre.

The timing and extent of sea ice directly and indirectly inluence the abundance and seasonal behavior of many species3. The intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc fourth assessment report states that greenhouse gas forcing is predominantly responsible for the decline in arctic sea ice extent. The arctic sea ice and its related biota are unique, and the yearround persistence of the ice has allowed the development of ice endemic species, meaning species not found anywhere else there are differing scientific opinions about how. In the study, published in ecological applications, researchers found that polar bears are losing weight and having fewer babies because their habitat is under threat.

Because pack ice is dynamic, pieces can collide and form much thicker ice. The remote impacts of arctic seaice loss can only be properly represented using. Hawkins3 1department of meteorology, university of reading, reading, uk, 2national centre for earth observation, department of meteorology, university of reading, reading, uk, 3ncasclimate, department of meteorology, university of reading, reading, uk abstract the observed decline in arctic sea ice is. Supplemental figure 2 polar view of the arctic tundra bioclimate zone. Alfred wegener institute for polar and marine research. The ocean is salty and when sea ice forms, much of the salt is pushed into the ocean water below the ice, although some salt may become trapped in small pockets between ice crystals. Pdf ecological consequences of seaice decline researchgate. Record of recent seaice loss one of the most conspicuous consequences of recent anthropogenic warming has been declining annual minimum extent of arctic sea ice 7. Sea ice and photodegradation of dom 2326 publications journal of geophysical research. Few people understand that the arctic sea ice death spiral represents more than just a major ecological upheaval in the worlds far north.

Section 6 is a critical evaluation of the reliability of the methods applied, followed by discussion and conclusions in sections 7 and 8. Sea ice determines the interaction between marine and terrestrial species, influences ocean productivity, and. What are the consequences of arctic sea ice decline. Even if greenhouse gases, the primary drivers of climate change, were limited immediately, sea ice loss would continue for several decades because of. The changes in the arctic are manifested by the decline in the sea ice, permafrost, glaciers and the greenland ice sheet stroeve et al. Walker9 after a decade with nine of the lowest arctic seaice minima on. Sea ice decline and 21st century transarctic shipping routes. Fulton,5 mark hebblewhite,6 jeffrey kerby,1 susan j. Sea ice, arctic biota, arctic ecology, climate change, conservation, crisis discipline. Water below sea ice has a higher concentration of salt and is denser than the surrounding ocean water, so it sinks and moves from the surface. Arctic sea ice now starts melting 11 days earlier and it starts refreezing 26 days later than it used to, on average see figure 3. If the air and water are warmer than usual, arctic sea ice will melt more than usual during the summer.